MARKET TREND WEEK 17- OIL PTA MEG PET PSF VSF

Market this week – W17

Summary: Oil fell, PTA fell from rush, MEG dropped, Polyester chip moved down, Polyester filament yarn promoted, PSF fell slightly, VSF declined.

 

1,Oil prices have fallen this week. On the one hand, the EIA crude oil inventory unexpectedly exceeded expectations; on the other hand, the number of new confirmed patients of COVID-19 in India and other countries continued to rise. The market worried that the surge in the number of new cases in India would hit the world’s third-largest oil importing country’s fuel demand.

 

2,PTA rushed higher and lowered. WTI fell more than 3%. PX is expected to improve, and PXN remains at a relatively high level, and the cost side still has certain short-term support. The Hengli production line was overhauled as scheduled. The restart of individual devices was delayed. In addition, Yisheng announced that the May supplied contract amount will reduce. Traders are reluctant to sell. The polyester factory replenishment atmosphere is still acceptable. The market buying momentum in the second half of the week increased, and the spot will be tight. It is expected that the liquidity will still be relatively tight, and the processing fees will remain low.

 

3,MEG price dropped and the market transaction was normal. In the first half of the week, MEG prices declined rapidly. Affected by the crude oil market’s callback and the news of new manufacturers in Jiangsu, the market was under significant pressure. The market offers were concentrated in futures market and the spot basis weakened rapidly. In the second half of the week, MEG prices were adjusted within a narrow range, and the spot price was lower than the obvious monthly average price, and some polyester factories participated in spot buying. With the concentration of Saudi cargo arriving at the port at the end of April, the subsequent terminal inventory will gradually accumulate, and the source of imported goods will continue to increase mainly in May. However, the subsequent maintenance of coal chemical plants was concentrated, and the domestic supply of MEG reduced. It is expected that the supply-demand pattern will maintain a tight balance in May.

 

4,Polyester chips fell weakly. Crude oil rose and then fell. The polyester cost side weakened again. In addition to the continued weak terminal demand, the chip factory inventory pressure appeared. In the second half of the week, quotations continued to drop. Traders also dropped to sell, and transactions were obviously down. The price of polyester chips is expected to be weak and fluctuated.

 

5,Polyester filament yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang returned to previous price after sales promotion this week. From Monday to Wednesday, polyester filaments remain stable, and the terminal maintains just-needed purchases; on Thursday, polyester filament factories concentrated on sales, and polyester filaments increased significantly under the promotion, and the price rebounded sharply on Friday. The price of polyester yarn in South China dropped slightly. The export quotation did not change much, and the transaction price was slightly lowered. Recently, the overall export orders have been poor. In addition, due to the Suez incident, container tensions have continued to ferment since April, and ocean freight has risen again, and factory shipments have been significantly affected. From the current point of view, the downstream rigid demand is still supported, but the willingness to stock up is insufficient, and the stocks of major manufacturers continue to be high. The short-term forecast for the polyester yarn is weak.

 

6,Polyester staple fiber is weak. In the first half of the week, PSF maintained a stable delivery. After the centralized replenishment of stocks last week, the raw materials of the spinning mill were available until the end of the month, and some of them were available until after May Day. Therefore, in the first half of this week, factory prices remained firm, and the downstream was digesting early-stage stocks. The overall stability was stable, and the transaction was mainly demanded. Affected by the sharp drop in futures on Wednesday, futures and spot traders sold at low prices, dragging down the prices of factories and traditional traders to pull back again. On Friday, the futures stopped falling and stabilized, and the PSF spot stabilized temporarily, but sales remained general.

 

7,Viscose staple fiber declined. High-end brands are still high and transaction price fell slightly. The price of mid-range fibers has been lowered significantly. Some mid-range factories have sold at much lower price with few big orders due to concerns about excessive accumulation of inventories during the Labor holiday period. In the export market, there is some demand in South Asia recently, and the Middle East has performed generally. The demand side performance in March-April was not as good as expected, and viscose staple fiber is unlikely to perform well in the short term. It is expected that the VSF will kept weakness at the controllable range next week.