MARKET TREND WEEK 19- OIL PTA MEG PET PSF VSF

Data this week – W19

USD/CNY=6.4

Market this week – W19

Summary: Oil rose first and fell, PTA rose, MEG futures rose while spot price weakened, Polyester chip rose slightly, Polyester filament yarn promoted again, PSF stabilized and rebounded, VSF temporarily stabilized.

1,Oil prices rose first and then fell this week, the overall trend was strong and fluctuating. International oil prices continued to be under pressure on Monday. Although investors have optimistic expectations for a strong rebound in fuel demand in major economies in the second half of this year, the worsening of the epidemic in India has led many countries to impose travel lockdowns on it, and the resulting short-term demand concerns continue to heat up. On Tuesday, international oil prices pulled back slightly. Although the U.S. dollar index rebounded, the relaxation of blockades in more US states and the European Union’s seeking to attract more tourists will help offset the impact of weak fuel demand in India. Oil prices rebound outlook will remain unchanged. Crude oil futures closed mixed on Wednesday, almost flat. Although crude oil inventories in the United States have fallen sharply, the epidemic situation in some parts of the world is still severe, and the surge in COVID-19 cases has put pressure on the demand outlook. The decline in oil prices expanded on Thursday, due to the expected shortfall in demand under the epidemic, which overwhelmed the benefit of the sharp drop in crude oil inventories in the previous period.

2,PTA rose. On the one hand, crude oil fluctuates strongly. the PXN processing gap remains high and PX price is strong stable, and the short-term cost side is still supported. On the other hand, downstream polyester factories have accelerated their sales promotion, but production and sales have gradually weakened. With the shutdown of individual installations, the polyester loading rate may be slightly lowered in May. Therefore, the destocking speed has been slowed. If the overhaul device restarts smoothly, the total inventory may continue to be accumulated in the second half of the month.

3,MEG futures prices rose strongly, but the spot price weakened. After the holiday, the commodity market performed strongly, and the MEG futures was significantly stronger. However, the spot market is generally following up, and the spot basis is weakened. In May, the MEG supply and demand pattern was still in a tight balance. The short-term MEG is expected to follow the strong operation of the commodity market.

4,Polyester chips rose slightly. As crude oil rose sharply during the holiday. The chip market sentiment was driven. On Wednesday, some factories had heavy transactions, and then the quotations price were raised. However, after the holiday, the terminal performance was average, and the market was not willing to chase higher price. On Friday, the transaction volume gradually declined. As the PTA processing fee has been repaired, the cost side would stable shortly, it is expected that the short-term polyester chip price will fluctuate mainly.

5,Polyester filament yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was promoted again after the festival. During the labor holiday, the polyester yarn factory maintained stable sales, the inventory increased significantly. Therefore, although the raw materials cost fluctuated strongly, the polyester yarn was on promotion again on Friday. The price of polyester yarn in South China rose partially after the holiday, and remained stable then. In the export market, the overall export quotations during the May 1st period did not change much, actual transactions price were mainly negotiated. The overall export orders were poor, mostly scattered small orders. In addition, due to the shortage of containers, the recent ocean freight charges has been increased with a large amount, and the willingness of foreign customers to purchase has declined significantly. The factory mainly executed pre-orders, and the overall price is expected to be weak shortly.

6,Polyester staple fiber first stabilized and then rose. From Monday and Tuesday during the Labor’s holiday, the prices of polyester raw materials are stable. Most transactions are based on pre-holiday prices, and the market is generally buying. As the market opened after the holiday on Wednesday, the purchase increased significantly. On Thursday, the spot price rose again, and downstream buying is more active. On Friday, the Jiangsu market was basically stable, and the Fujian market quotations rose, transactions were general. After the large sales turnover, the market turned into a stable state, and the price mainly followed the fluctuation of raw materials.

7,Viscose staple fiber is temporarily stable. On Friday, individual factories of mid-range fibers sold with lower prices and relatively good transactions volume. In terms of high-end, the quotations remained stable, but different companies have different protective policies for downstream, and the actual major customers are partially lower, but the small order prices are relatively strong. There was no significant change in the supplier quotations of high white non-woven fibers this week. In the export market, affected by the epidemic, overseas demand has maintained a freezing point. Some other viscose staple fiber producing countries have increased their domestic quotations to China. At present, suppliers are open to overseas orders, and firm offers can be negotiated specifically, but there are not many effective firm offers, and downstream bids are too low. It is expected to remain weak and decline in the short term.