MARKET TREND WEEK 30- OIL PTA MEG PET PSF VSF

Market this week – W30

Summary: Oil closed up, PTA and MEG rose, Polyester chip declined and rose, Polyester filament yarn rose, PSF fluctuated, VSF increased slightly.

 

1,Oil prices both closed up slightly this week. Recently, due to the rapid spread of Delta mutant COVID-19 virus strains around the world, and at the same time, due to the soaring US inflation data, and finally the news of OPEC + through the increase in production, short-term market sentiment tended to be tense, and the two major crude oil futures fell sharply on Monday. Crude oil futures prices closed higher on Tuesday, partially recovering the major decline suffered on Monday. US crude oil inventories increased by more than 2 million barrels last week, but the rise in the three major US stock indexes and the decline in EIA fuel oil supply are good for oil prices. At the same time, signs of tight supply in the spot crude oil market alleviated market concerns about the economic outlook. The two major crude oil futures continued to rise on Wednesday. On Thursday, US crude oil hovered around 70.2, rising more than 4%, continuing the gains of the previous trading day.

 

2,PTA rose broadly. In the first half of the week, crude oil fell sharply, and PTA futures followed the decline, but the spot basis showed a strong performance. As the price of PTA fell, the enthusiasm of polyester factories to buy goods increased and market transactions increased. In the second half of the week, crude oil continued to rise. At the same time, due to the impact of typhoon weather, the progress of PTA unloading at the port was limited, and the spot basis was relatively strong, but the transaction was general, traders mainly replenishing goods, and polyester factories were mainly waiting and watching. Recently, individual PTA devices have been reduced in load and overhauled. Under the expectation of supply reduction and typhoon weather may affect the situation of port arrivals in the later period, the PTA spot basis is relatively strong, and the short-term PTA shock is expected to be relatively strong.

 

3,MEG rushed higher and fell back. On Monday, the MEG price rose slightly and then fell slightly, and the market transaction was fair. On Tuesday, crude oil rebounded significantly overnight. MEG prices increased strongly after opening low, and mainstream seller was reluctant to sell, and prices fluctuated sharply. On Wednesday, affected by the double typhoons, the port of Yangtze River was closed, and there were more delays in ships, and the spot market was actively buying. MEG prices fluctuated at a high level, and MEG prices rose strongly in the afternoon. On Thursday, MEG prices fell from a high level, and the overall market turnover was average. Affected by the typhoon, the MEG port will be closed, and the arrival of ships will slow down within the week. The downstream polyester started operating at a high level, and the rigid demand support was obvious, and the downward transmission of the industrial chain was relatively smooth. It is expected that the short-term MEG price will be strong.

 

4,Polyester chips declined first and then rose. At the beginning of the week, affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, polyester raw materials fell, and chip prices fell. In the middle of the week, crude oil rebounded sharply, coupled with the speculation of typhoons and shortages, the price of PTA rose sharply, and the price of polyester chips rose significantly due to the rising cost.Recently, crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, polyester raw materials have performed strongly, chip processing fees are at a low level, and the inventory pressure of mainstream factories is not large, and short-term prices are supported.

 

5,Polyester filament price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increases and preferential treatment are parallel. With low inventories, the price of raw materials has risen, and the quotations of polyester filament factories followed to rose; but at the same time, polyester filament factories are still active to sell stock products, and transactions are based on specifications and quantity preferential negotiations. Among the South China polyester filament factories, some factories rose. In the export market, the quotations of polyester yarn POY and FDY are stable, DTY is partially increased, and export orders are generally light, especially for far ocean routes. Most customers cannot accept the current high freight costs, and order negotiations are extremely light. The probability of export recovery in the short term is low, and the market is expected to be mainly stable.

 

6,Polyester staple fiber followed the rise of raw materials, and the cash flow loss expanded. In the first half of the week, affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, polyester raw materials and PSF quickly followed the decline. Subsequently, crude oil rebounded, polyester raw materials and PSF futures rose, and the spot price also rose quickly. There was a moderate increase in the second half of the week. However, as the price continued to rise, the downstream gradually waited and watched and the transaction volume shrank. As the PSF growth rate this week could not keep up with the polyester raw materials, the cash flow loss expanded. The raw material end PTA continued to reduce the contract volume in August, and the cost support was acceptable. If the maintenance of 400,000 tons of staple fiber in Sanfangxiang is implemented on the 25th, the load will drop to about 90%, which will support the market. It is expected that the short-term PSF price will continue to follow the fluctuation of raw materials.

 

7,Viscose staple fiber prices moved up slightly. The quotation of Tangshan Sanyou at the beginning of the week increased to 13,500 yuan/ton, and Sateri maintained its quotation at 13,300 yuan/ton. In terms of actual implementation, there is a certain room for negotiation for specific customers. In the mid-range, major manufacturers quoted at RMB 13,000-13,300/ton, and the actual transaction was around RMB 13,000/ton. The volume of new orders was average. The price of small factories and traders is slightly lower than 13,000 yuan/ton, and the delivery situation is fair. There are still some orders signed in the export market this week, and the export FOB prices have risen slightly, depending on the order volume to negotiate. .VSF is currently full of pre-sales orders quantity, and the downstream is also slowly recovering. Although some products of grey fabrics have not risen much, the overall trend is upward. Under this circumstance, it is expected that VSF will continue to rise steadily.